26.1.12

FED: Iστορική απόφαση για το ύψος του πληθωρισμό, πρωτοπορία στην δημοσιοποίηση των εκτιμήσεων, δυσκοιλιότητα για τα επίπεδα ανεργίας

Μπερνάνκι : "'Πλαφόν'' για τον πληθωρισμό στο 2%Δεν αλλάζει τον τρόπο που προσεγγίζει τη νομισματική πολιτική η ομοσπονδιακή τράπεζα των ΗΠΑ (Fed) σύμφωνα με όσα δήλωσε απόψε ο επικεφαλής της κ. Μπεν Μπερνάνκι, ο οποίος έσπευσε να υπογραμμίσει ότι η σαφήνεια της κατεύθυνσης της πολιτικής της αποτελεί σημαντικό στόχο.
Αλλά ιστορικό βήμα και προσωπική νίκη του κ. Μπερνάνκι θεωρείται από τους αναλυτές η απόφαση της Fed να ορίσει «πλαφόν» για τον πληθωρισμό, στο 2%. Είναι μία κίνηση που ουσιαστικά εναρμονίζει την νομισματική πολιτική της με αυτήν άλλων κεντρικών τραπεζών.
Νωρίτερα η αμερικανική κεντρική τράπεζα είχε ανακοινώσει ότι διατηρεί αμετάβλητο το εύρος διακύμανσης του βασικού της παρεμβατικού επιτοκίου  στην κλίμακα μεταξύ μηδέν και 0,25%.
Πρόκειται για επιτόκιο που ετέθη σε ισχύ τον τελευταίο μήνα του 2008. Η Fed θέλει να διατηρήσει πολύ χαμηλά τα επίπεδα  των επιτοκίων μέχρι τα τέλη του 2014.

http://www.kerdos.gr/default.aspx?id=1652096&nt=103


FOMC statement of longer-run goals and policy strategy

Release Date: January 25, 2012
Following careful deliberations at its recent meetings, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has reached broad agreement on the following principles regarding its longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy. The Committee intends to reaffirm these principles and to make adjustments as appropriate at its annual organizational meeting each January.
The FOMC is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity facilitates well-informed decisionmaking by households and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncertainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy, and enhances transparency and accountability, which are essential in a democratic society.
Inflation, employment, and long-term interest rates fluctuate over time in response to economic and financial disturbances. Moreover, monetary policy actions tend to influence economic activity and prices with a lag. Therefore, the Committee's policy decisions reflect its longer-run goals, its medium-term outlook, and its assessments of the balance of risks, including risks to the financial system that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.
The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation. The Committee judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. Communicating this inflation goal clearly to the public helps keep longer-term inflation expectations firmly anchored, thereby fostering price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhancing the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances.
The maximum level of employment is largely determined by nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor market. These factors may change over time and may not be directly measurable. Consequently, it would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment; rather, the Committee's policy decisions must be informed by assessments of the maximum level of employment, recognizing that such assessments are necessarily uncertain and subject to revision. The Committee considers a wide range of indicators in making these assessments. Information about Committee participants' estimates of the longer-run normal rates of output growth and unemployment is published four times per year in the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections. For example, in the most recent projections, FOMC participants' estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment had a central tendency of 5.2 percent to 6.0 percent, roughly unchanged from last January but substantially higher than the corresponding interval several years earlier.
In setting monetary policy, the Committee seeks to mitigate deviations of inflation from its longer-run goal and deviations of employment from the Committee's assessments of its maximum level. These objectives are generally complementary.  However, under circumstances in which the Committee judges that the objectives are not complementary, it follows a balanced approach in promoting them, taking into account the magnitude of the deviations and the potentially different time horizons over which employment and inflation are projected to return to levels judged consistent with its mandate.

FOMC statement
...
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy.  In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. 

παρακάτω, οι εκτιμήσεις των μελών της FED







με βάση τις παραπάνω εκτιμήσεις, τα μέλη της FED εκτιμού ότι:
1. οι ρυθμοί ανάπτυξης του ΑΕΠ εμφανίζονται υψηλότεροι από τη μακροπρόθεσμη τάση
2. η ανεργία είναι υψηλότερη από την εκτιμόμενη μακροπρόθεσμη τάση
3. ο πληθωρισμός κινείται πολύ κοντά στον επιθυμητό στόχο

μεταξύ μας, ο συνδυασμός των 1 και 2 δεν ταιριάζει...


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