τα ρίσκα του προγράμματος [μια αλήθεια]

Political failure. 

A key risk for the program is diminishing support for reforms, particularly as Greece endures another year of deep recession. The latest opinion polls show dwindling support for the coalition parties and growing support for Syriza and other anti-program parties. This could go beyond implementation delays, and lead to a political crisis, triggering debt default and/or euro exit.

Delayed recovery of confidence. 

Even without a complete political failure, political instability and the risk of disorderly default/euro exit may have a stronger effect on confidence and investment than now projected. In this instance, growth would undershoot projections, and fiscal adjustment would struggle against these headwinds. These impacts could make the process self-reinforcing, leaving Greece in a high-debt low-growth trap.

Transmission mechanism. 

The program now takes a more conservative view on fiscal multipliers, but they could yet be higher than currently projected, especially if the external environment is weaker, or if bank deleveraging proceeds at a more rapid than expected pace (e.g., due to crowding out, as treasury bills are retained on banks’ balance sheets). Separately, gains from structural reforms remain uncertain, as it could take longer for wage adjustment to translate into price adjustment, given still strong vested interests, and it could take longer for stronger competitiveness to translate into higher net exports.

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ΣΥΡΙΖΑ
λιγότερη από την αναμενόμενη εμπιστοσύνη = επενδύσεις (ΑΞΕ)
ύφεση μεγαλύτερη από την εκτιμώμενη / τράπεζες

ΔΙΑΒΑΣΤΕ επίσης τι ακριβώς σημαίνουν αυτά τα ρίσκα
"While the program aims to mitigate these risks, it is clear that if they do play out, additional debt relief and financing would be needed from Greece’s European partners"
δηλαδή, εάν πχ βγει πρώτο κόμμα ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, αυτό σημαίνει ότι οι ανάγκες κουρέματος και χρηματοδότησης της Ελλάδας θα αυξηθούν!!!

υπενθυμίζω σε όσους δεν έχουν ακούσει, ο Αλέξης θα βρίσκεται στη ΝΥ αυτές τις μέρες, προσκεκλημένος του Ινστιτούτου Brooking (Νο.1 think tank των ΗΠΑ)
στις ΗΠΑ έχει την έδρα του το ΔΝΤ
είναι βέβαιο ότι οι Αμερικάνοι έχουν απηυδήσει με τον ευρωπαϊκό τρόπο επίλυσης προβλημάτων