This bull market is in its golden years, and that’s a good sign for
future gains, says S&P Capital IQ strategist Sam Stovall.
The bull market, started at the March 2009 bottom, has just entered its fifth year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is up almost 130% from the lows and is heading toward a record. The index closed at 1,556.22 on Monday, just 9 points shy of its all-time high in October 2007.
History suggests that having made it this far, there’s a pretty good chance it will keep advancing. “If one makes it to age 65, they have a great chance of making it to age 75. And the same goes for bull markets,” said Stovall in a research note Monday.
But just how far can the S&P 500 advance? If history is an indicator, then Stovall predicts it could rise to 1877 by March 2014, or about 21% from Monday’s levels.
“Should the S&P 500 record a price advance in the coming year that is similar to the average of the prior fifth-year bull markets, and there’s no guarantee it will, the market could advance from Friday’s close of 1551 to 1877 by this time next year,” Stovall wrote.
Four of five bull markets evident since World War II that reached their fifth anniversary — notching an average 21% price increase in their fifth year — extended into a sixth year, according to the research note.
But the path to record highs could be less than straightforward.
“While S&P Capital IQ’s Investment Policy Committee believes the S&P 500 will likely celebrate its fifth birthday in 2014, we believe the S&P 500 is currently overextended and will likely slip into a pullback or correction within the next few months after possibly recording a new all-time high,” Stovall wrote.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/12/sp-500-could-reach-1877-in-a-year-a-study-of-aging-bull-markets-suggests/
see also Dow 36,000 Is Attainable Again
The bull market, started at the March 2009 bottom, has just entered its fifth year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is up almost 130% from the lows and is heading toward a record. The index closed at 1,556.22 on Monday, just 9 points shy of its all-time high in October 2007.
History suggests that having made it this far, there’s a pretty good chance it will keep advancing. “If one makes it to age 65, they have a great chance of making it to age 75. And the same goes for bull markets,” said Stovall in a research note Monday.
But just how far can the S&P 500 advance? If history is an indicator, then Stovall predicts it could rise to 1877 by March 2014, or about 21% from Monday’s levels.
“Should the S&P 500 record a price advance in the coming year that is similar to the average of the prior fifth-year bull markets, and there’s no guarantee it will, the market could advance from Friday’s close of 1551 to 1877 by this time next year,” Stovall wrote.
Four of five bull markets evident since World War II that reached their fifth anniversary — notching an average 21% price increase in their fifth year — extended into a sixth year, according to the research note.
But the path to record highs could be less than straightforward.
“While S&P Capital IQ’s Investment Policy Committee believes the S&P 500 will likely celebrate its fifth birthday in 2014, we believe the S&P 500 is currently overextended and will likely slip into a pullback or correction within the next few months after possibly recording a new all-time high,” Stovall wrote.
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/12/sp-500-could-reach-1877-in-a-year-a-study-of-aging-bull-markets-suggests/
see also Dow 36,000 Is Attainable Again
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