"UK shortage of mortgage finance will persist throughout 2008, 2009 and 2010, and I suspect that current forecasts for new mortgage lending during this period will prove optimistic."
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4421993.ece
11.8.08
Προφήτες και λάθος εκτιμήσεις
8 who saw the crisis coming......and 8 who didn't (Fortune) http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0808/gallery.whosawitcoming.fortune/index.htmlOne year after the credit crunch began, Fortune looks back at who saw trouble ahead, and who just ended up in trouble. (Warning -- click whoring at its finest)
Νέες ρυθμίσεις
Many progressives now believe the age of Milton Friedman may be drawing to a close. Their hope is the current financial crisis has shown the costs and dangers of inadequate market regulation, thereby discrediting the anti- regulation philosophy of Milton Friedman and his Chicago School colleagues.
η συνέχεια
site: http://www.thomaspalley.com/
O τύπος αυτός εμένα μου αρέσει πάρα πολύ.
(κάποια στιγμή θα πρέπει να φτιάξω links όλους αυτούς που διαβάζω...)
η συνέχεια
site: http://www.thomaspalley.com/
O τύπος αυτός εμένα μου αρέσει πάρα πολύ.
(κάποια στιγμή θα πρέπει να φτιάξω links όλους αυτούς που διαβάζω...)
U.S. lengthier recession
Indeed, in their year-ahead predictions back in December and January, most economists expected U.S. growth would be weak in the first part of 2008 and then rebound (some even expected the Fed Funds target rate – currently 2% - would be back at 4.5% by year-end).
In today’s paper, we explain how that scenario has changed – thanks to cash-strapped consumers and a slowing global economy, many now say the U.S. economy could contract during the second half of this year.
Such a prospect, coupled with a quarter of GDP decline at the end of 2007 already on the books, raises the likelihood that the U.S. will experience a lengthier recession now than the previous two, in 2001 and 1990-91, that lasted just eight months each.
So how, especially with oil prices now well below their record highs and stock markets soaring on Friday, is it that the outlook is now so precarious?
There are four main components of U.S. economic growth, as measured by GDP: consumption (the largest), investment, government spending, and net exports. Two of those components – consumption and net exports – look especially weak going into the second half of this year.
Consumption is poised for its first quarterly contraction since the 1990-91 recession in the coming months, while export growth is losing steam as economic weakness is spreading in Europe, the U.K., Japan, and elsewhere. Prospects for investment and government spending, meanwhile, are shaky at best.
“The global economic slowdown has broadened and intensified,” wrote J.P. Morgan economists Friday in a note to clients, adding that data released this week “should confirm that that Euro area and Japan contracted last quarter….Emerging market economies are also cooling materially.”
Slowing demand for U.S. exports, which have been a crucial source of strength for the economy over the last several quarters, could mean trouble ahead for many companies who have relied on foreign demand as U.S. growth slowed. “The recent downshift has proved more powerful than expected,” the J.P. Morgan team cautioned.
In today’s paper, we explain how that scenario has changed – thanks to cash-strapped consumers and a slowing global economy, many now say the U.S. economy could contract during the second half of this year.
Such a prospect, coupled with a quarter of GDP decline at the end of 2007 already on the books, raises the likelihood that the U.S. will experience a lengthier recession now than the previous two, in 2001 and 1990-91, that lasted just eight months each.
So how, especially with oil prices now well below their record highs and stock markets soaring on Friday, is it that the outlook is now so precarious?
There are four main components of U.S. economic growth, as measured by GDP: consumption (the largest), investment, government spending, and net exports. Two of those components – consumption and net exports – look especially weak going into the second half of this year.
Consumption is poised for its first quarterly contraction since the 1990-91 recession in the coming months, while export growth is losing steam as economic weakness is spreading in Europe, the U.K., Japan, and elsewhere. Prospects for investment and government spending, meanwhile, are shaky at best.
“The global economic slowdown has broadened and intensified,” wrote J.P. Morgan economists Friday in a note to clients, adding that data released this week “should confirm that that Euro area and Japan contracted last quarter….Emerging market economies are also cooling materially.”
Slowing demand for U.S. exports, which have been a crucial source of strength for the economy over the last several quarters, could mean trouble ahead for many companies who have relied on foreign demand as U.S. growth slowed. “The recent downshift has proved more powerful than expected,” the J.P. Morgan team cautioned.
New Lefts over markets
Turn to the Left:Joseph Stiglitz writes in the U.K. Guardian that the political left has an economic agenda that can offer higher growth and social justice. “The new left is trying to make markets work. Unfettered markets do not operate well on their own – a conclusion reinforced by the current financial debacle. Defenders of markets sometimes admit that they do fail, even disastrously, but they claim that markets are “self-correcting.” During the Great Depression, similar arguments were heard: the government need not do anything, because markets would restore the economy to full employment in the long run. But, as John Maynard Keynes famously put it, in the long run we are all dead.”
€,$,¥ & Pound
You would think a U.S. dollar rally would be a good sign. But this is all relative: Strategists say the euro, the pound and other dollar rivals are flailing due to the weakness of their domestic economies, rather than a strong U.S. outlook.
The euro recently sank as far as $1.5009, pressured by various indicators that things are getting gloomy in the euro zone – from a surprise contraction in Italian second-quarter GDP to comments made Thursday by ECB President Jean Claude Trichet, who admitted the central bank is watching downside risks to growth. He held rates Thursday at 4.25%, but that could mean a cut in is the works soon, further pressuring the single currency against the dollar. Just a few weeks ago, on July 15, the euro had reached a new high above the $1.60 mark.
The euro recently sank as far as $1.5009, pressured by various indicators that things are getting gloomy in the euro zone – from a surprise contraction in Italian second-quarter GDP to comments made Thursday by ECB President Jean Claude Trichet, who admitted the central bank is watching downside risks to growth. He held rates Thursday at 4.25%, but that could mean a cut in is the works soon, further pressuring the single currency against the dollar. Just a few weeks ago, on July 15, the euro had reached a new high above the $1.60 mark.
Oil
Of late crude-oil futures were at $119.28, off by $2.13, closing in on the $116.23 mark, a level that would mark a 20% decline from its July 3 closing high of $145.29, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Tips
“There’s not enough here to call a bottom but there are plenty of stocks screaming to be bought,” writes David Nelson on Minyanville.com.
“Dry markets can be prone to distortions and false moves,” writes Mike O’Rourke, chief investment strategist at BTIG, in a commentary to clients. “Over the past twenty years, the August performance of the S&P 500 has diverged from the direction of the year to date performance 65% of the time.”
“Dry markets can be prone to distortions and false moves,” writes Mike O’Rourke, chief investment strategist at BTIG, in a commentary to clients. “Over the past twenty years, the August performance of the S&P 500 has diverged from the direction of the year to date performance 65% of the time.”
2.8.08
πηγήThough the monthly employment figures contain considerable measurement error and are prone to revision, a clearer picture emerges from the year-over-year percentage change, which is now negative. We've never seen a year-over-year decline in nonfarm payrolls without an economic recession.
Key rates @ G3
Figure 1: Policy rates and predictions. Source: Deutsche Bundesbank, Global Economic Perspectives July 21, 2008.
Wanna Buy Banks? It’s Ok to Wait.
Rob Curran attempts to calm the fears of those who think it’s too late to buy banks.
Worried you missed the action in financials?
Relax. If the stock-market cycle were expressed in terms of opening hours, one market technician says it’s about 4:15 a.m. at the bar, with a few diehards ordering refills and the likes of John Thain sweeping up the broken glass from last night’s overindulgence.
“I would resist the temptation to buy, and try not to be seduced by what is heralded as some major bottom,” says Carter Worth, chief market technician at Oppenheimer & Co., who sees the recent move as a “countertrend rally” and recommends shorting the financials.
This corner bar is going to be dead for a long time yet, and there won’t be a cover to get in for years, Mr. Worth says. “Bottoms are long in the making,” he adds.
When charts establish downtrends as momentous and definitive as those of the XLF, and for that matter Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, technicians expect the trend to end with a “consolidation phase.” That would be a period of weeks or months where volatility dries up, and the stocks just go nowhere.
Technology stocks didn’t have a rebound while everyone was talking about the Dotcom bust in 2001. They did so in very quiet conditions, beginning late in 2002, when they were dismissed as a dead asset class and all but forgotten.
Cleve Rueckert, a research analyst with Birinyi Associates, recommends waiting for the moment when stock prices, the 200-day, and 50-day moving averages flatten out all at the same time – a flatline on the chart rather than the current jagged pattern.
At about $21.50, the Financial Select Sector SPDR, is roughly 25% above its closing nadir of $17.17 on July 15. Still, the market witnessed several short-term rallies since financials first took a dive in August. For every “kitchen sink” quarter issued in the last several months, there has been a surprise from another financial institution.
As Pete McCorry, senior equity trader at Keefe Bruyette & Woods said recently: “This is one party I don’t mind being late to.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/08/01/wanna-buy-banks-its-ok-to-wait/
Βαθαίνει η κρίση στην Ευρωζώνη
Πυκνώνουν τα σύννεφα πάνω από την Ευρωζώνη καθώς συνεχίζεται το αρνητικό σερί οικονομικών στοιχείων. Στον μακρύ κατάλογο των ανησυχητικών ειδήσεων προστέθηκαν την Παρασκευή η περαιτέρω συρρίκνωση του μεταποιητικού τομέα τον Ιούλιο και η απροσδόκητα μεγάλη πτώση στις λιανικές πωλήσεις της Γερμανίας, επιβεβαιώνοντας τις δυσμενείς οικονομικές προοπτικές της Γηραιάς Ηπείρου.
Ειδικότερα, ο δείκτης ΡΜΙ που καταγράφει την δραστηριότητα στον μεταποιητικό τομέα της Ευρωζώνης υποχώρησε στις 47,4 μονάδες τον Ιούλιο από τις 49,2 τον προηγούμενο μήνα. Πρόκειται για το δεύτερο συνεχόμενο μήνα που ο δείκτης παραμένει κάτω από το όριο των 50 μονάδων, το οποίο διαχωρίζει την επέκταση από την συρρίκνωση του μεταποιητικού τομέα.
Όπως έγινε γνωστό, όλες οι μεγάλες οικονομίες της Ευρωζώνης -πλην της Γερμανίας- εμφάνισαν συρρίκνωση του μεταποιητικού κλάδου. Στην Ισπανία, μάλιστα, ο επιμέρους δείκτης ΡΜΙ υποχώρησε στις 39,2 μονάδες, τιμή που υποδεικνύει βαθιά ύφεση.
Πληθωρισμός
Μια επίσης ανησυχητική παράμετρος που βγήκε από τα στοιχεία για την μεταποίηση είναι η εκτίναξη των δεικτών τιμών εξόδου, γεγονός το οποίο σημαίνει ότι τα ευρωπαϊκά εργοστάσια κατεβάζουν μεν την παραγωγή τους αλλά ανεβάζουν τις τιμές χονδρικής, περνώντας στην κατανάλωση τις ανατιμήσεις των καυσίμων και των λοιπών εμπορευμάτων.
Λιανικές πωλήσεις
Μόνο που αυτή η τακτική έχει επιπτώσεις στη ζήτηση, όπως φανερώνει η ελεύθερη πτώση των λιανικών πωλήσεων στη Γερμανία τον Ιούνιο κατά 2,8% σε μηνιαία βάση και 3,7% σε ετήσια! Ακόμα, μάλιστα, και αν εξαιρεθούν οι πωλήσεις αυτοκινήτων και ο τζίρος των πρατηρίων βενζίνης, που προφανώς επηρεάζονται περισσότερο από το ράλι του πετρελαίου, οι λιανικές πωλήσεις υποχώρησαν κατά 1,4%. Πρόκειται για ποσοστό μεγαλύτερο ακόμα και από την πλέον απαισιόδοξη πρόβλεψη των αναλυτών σε σχετική δημοσκόπηση του Reuters.
http://www.imerisia.gr/article.asp?catid=12336&subid=2&tag=9424&pubid=2765158
Στα μαλακά έπεσε η ανεργία
Με ανάμεικτα συναισθήματα υποδέχθηκαν οι αγορές τα στοιχεία για την απασχόληση στις ΗΠΑ, καθώς η μικρότερη του αναμενόμενου συρρίκνωση στις θέσεις εργασίας αντισταθμίστηκε από το άλμα του δείκτη ανεργίας.
Όπως ανακοίνωσε το αμερικανικό υπουργείο Εργασίας, τον Ιούλιο χάθηκαν 51.000 θέσεις εργασίας, απώλεια εμφανώς μικρότερη των 75.000 που προέβλεπαν κατά μέσο όροι οι οικονομικοί αναλυτές.
Η μείωση γίνεται για 7ο διαδοχικό μήνα. Τον Ιούλιο συνολικά οι περικοπές θέσεων εργασίας από την αρχή του έτους ανέρχονται σε 463.000.
Ωστόσο, η ικανοποίηση από τα παραπάνω στοιχεία μετριάστηκε από την απροσδόκητη άνοδο του δείκτη ανεργίας στο 5,7%, από 5,5% τον Ιούνιο.
http://www.imerisia.gr/article.asp?catid=12336&subid=2&tag=9424&pubid=2767135
Jobless rate highest in 4 years, payrolls drop
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. unemployment rate hit its highest in four years during July as employers cut jobs for a seventh straight month, though less severely than predicted, a Labor Department report showed on Friday.
The rising toll of job losses and plunging new-car sales in July fueled worry that a recession may be unavoidable and helped drive stock prices lower again.
The rising toll of job losses and plunging new-car sales in July fueled worry that a recession may be unavoidable and helped drive stock prices lower again.
The jobless rate climbed to 5.7 percent from 5.5 percent in June as 51,000 jobs were eliminated in July, bringing losses for the year to 463,000. Economists had expected 75,000 jobs would be cut last month but had forecast the unemployment rate would rise only to 5.6 percent.
In a separate report, the Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity held steady in July and noted some moderation in inflation pressures. Its index of national factory activity slipped a bit to 50 from 50.2 in June -- with 50 being the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
"If you look at ISM and the unemployment number together, it suggests an economy that is, at best, stuck in neutral," said Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist with Subodh Kumar & Associates in Toronto.
Stock prices dropped, with the Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) off 51 points to end at 11,326 and the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) down 14 points to 2,310. Prices for U.S. Treasury debt securities rose moderately as investors sought safer haven.
In an interview with Reuters, U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said economic stimulus payments that are being sent out to qualifying Americans should bolster the economy but wouldn't predict when more jobs would be created.
JOB PICTURE CLOUDED
"I won't speculate," he said. "But we are forecasting continued growth in the economy for the back half of the year and it will be that growth that will determine a return to job creation."
But consumers, whose purchases fuel two-thirds of national output, appeared to be frightened by soaring energy and other costs and by tightening credit conditions.
Sales of new cars by General Motors Corp. plummeted 27 percent in July from year-earlier levels, Ford Motor Co. sales fell 15 percent and Toyota Motor Corp. was off 12 percent. GM lost a staggering $15.5 billion in the second quarter.
In St. Petersburg, Florida, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama called for new measures, including $25 billion of spending on infrastructure projects like roads.
"With job losses mounting, prices rising, increased turbulence in our financial system, a growing credit crunch, we need to do more," Obama said at a town hall meeting.
The Labor Department trimmed estimates for job losses in both May and June. It said a total of 26,000 fewer jobs were lost in the two months than previously thought.
Policy-makers at the Federal Reserve meet next week and are expected to keep official interest rates unchanged as they weigh concerns about economic weakness against worries about bubbling price pressures.
Brian Gendreau, an investment strategist with ING Investment Management Americas in New York, described monthly job losses as "painful" and consistent with a weak economy.
"We are clearly in a growth recession and my fear is that we are in a mild, but longer recession than the one we experienced in 2001-2002," Gendreau said.
HOUSING SLIDE CONTINUES
The unexpectedly steep climb in the unemployment rate underlines how a deterioration in the housing sector continues to chill economic growth. The last time the jobless rate was higher was in March 2004, when it hit 5.8 percent.
While July's job loss was not as bad as feared, it did not change the picture of an economy that is basically treading water, analysts said.
"Overall the report looks to be broadly consistent with other data that show the economy quite soft, basically stalled, not growing very much, but not contracting very much either," said David Resler, chief economist for Nomura Securities International in New York.
The report showed 16-to-24 year olds facing particular difficulty in trying to nail down summer jobs, a factor that helped push up the overall unemployment rate.
In addition, the average workweek slipped to 33.6 hours, the lowest since November 2004, from 33.7 hours in June, a further suggestion of economic weakness.
July job losses were widespread. The only major sectors showing any gains were government, hospitality, and education and health services. Construction industries shed another 22,000 employees and factories cut 35,000 jobs.
A Commerce Department report on June construction spending underlined the continuing slide in building that is dragging employment lower in the construction sector, with spending falling a steeper-than-expected 0.4 percent.
(Additional reporting by Burton Frierson and Chris Reese in New York, Patrick Rucker in Washington and John Whitesides in St. Petersburg; Editing by Neil Stempleman)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080801/usa_economy_jobs.html?.v=7
1.8.08
Kαλό Αύγουστο 2008! (flashnote)
Αυτή τη φορά έκανε λάθος η αγορά!!! To peak της σχεδόν συνέπεσε με το ξεκίνημα της πτώσης του αμερικάνικου ΑΕΠ... Αυτή τη φορά δεν κατάφερε να προεξοφλήσει!
Το τμήμα εμπορίου ανακοίνωσε εχθές το Q2 της οικονομίας και οι πάντες δυσαρεστήθηκαν! Και δεν ήταν από το πολύ καλό +1.9% - άσχετα εάν οι προβλέψεις ήθελαν 2.3% - που "χάλασε"... Ήταν το -0.2% του Q4 2007, όπως αναθεώρηκε, καθώς και η τρίτη ανάγνωση του Q1 08 στο 0.9%. Μάλιστα, το Q4 2007 ήρθε από το +0.6%... Κι όποιος δει το report, θα διαβάσει για αναθεώρησεις (προς τα κάτω περισσότερο) από το 2005...
1. Θα έχουμε κι άλλες αναθεωρήσεις μεγεθών, προς το χειρότερο
2. Επειδή το πακέτο επιστροφών φόρων του Μπους, ξοδεύτηκε μόλις στο Q2 08 και δύσκολα αυτό θα γυρίσει αρνητικό από το +1.9%, το σχημα ύφεσης που δείχνει να σχηματοποιείται είναι της μορφής W, με το πρώτο V να είναι τα Q4 07 - Q1 08.
3. Οι δείκτες ανεργίας ανεβαίνουν σε σημασία
Κι ο υπόλοιπος κόσμος ακολουθεί τα χνάρια της "μόνης υπερδύναμης"...
Το τι θα επακολουθήσει είναι καθαρά θέμα πολιτικής και πολιτικών: τι θέλουν, πως το θέλουν, τι κουράγια και τι σκοπούς έχουν...
Το τμήμα εμπορίου ανακοίνωσε εχθές το Q2 της οικονομίας και οι πάντες δυσαρεστήθηκαν! Και δεν ήταν από το πολύ καλό +1.9% - άσχετα εάν οι προβλέψεις ήθελαν 2.3% - που "χάλασε"... Ήταν το -0.2% του Q4 2007, όπως αναθεώρηκε, καθώς και η τρίτη ανάγνωση του Q1 08 στο 0.9%. Μάλιστα, το Q4 2007 ήρθε από το +0.6%... Κι όποιος δει το report, θα διαβάσει για αναθεώρησεις (προς τα κάτω περισσότερο) από το 2005...
1. Θα έχουμε κι άλλες αναθεωρήσεις μεγεθών, προς το χειρότερο
2. Επειδή το πακέτο επιστροφών φόρων του Μπους, ξοδεύτηκε μόλις στο Q2 08 και δύσκολα αυτό θα γυρίσει αρνητικό από το +1.9%, το σχημα ύφεσης που δείχνει να σχηματοποιείται είναι της μορφής W, με το πρώτο V να είναι τα Q4 07 - Q1 08.
3. Οι δείκτες ανεργίας ανεβαίνουν σε σημασία
Κι ο υπόλοιπος κόσμος ακολουθεί τα χνάρια της "μόνης υπερδύναμης"...
Το τι θα επακολουθήσει είναι καθαρά θέμα πολιτικής και πολιτικών: τι θέλουν, πως το θέλουν, τι κουράγια και τι σκοπούς έχουν...
Σε υψηλό 16 ετών ο τιμάριθμος
Σε υψηλό 16 ετών έφτασε ο πληθωρισμός τον Ιούλιο, καθώς οι τιμές των καυσίμων εκτοξεύθηκαν σε επίπεδα ρεκόρ.
Ο πληθωρισμός ανήλθε στο 4,1% από 4% που ήταν τον Ιούνιο, σύμφωνα με ανακοίνωση της Eurostat. Το ποσοστό είναι το υψηλότερο που έχει σημειωθεί από το 1992 και επιβεβαίωσε τις προβλέψεις των αναλυτών του Bloomberg. Την ίδια στιγμή ξεχωριστή έκθεση έδειξε ότι η ανεργία παρέμεινε στο 7,3%.
Η Κεντρική Τράπεζα της Ευρώπης που επιδιώκει να διατηρεί τον πληθωρισμό σε επίπεδα χαμηλότερα του 2% ανακοίνωσε την αύξηση του βασικού επιτοκίου στο 4,25% στις 3 Ιουλίου, που είναι το υψηλότερο επίπεδο στο οποίο ανήλθαν τα επιτόκια τα τελευταία 7 χρόνια.
Ο πρόεδρος της ΕΚΤ, Ζαν Κλόντ Τρισέ, έχει επανειλημμένα εκφράσει τις ανησυχίες του για τη ραγδαία αύξηση των τιμών. Γεγονός που δεν αποκλείει το ενδεχόμενο να προχωρήσει σε άλλη μια αύξηση του ευρω-επιτοκίου ως το τέλος του έτους (πιθανόν στο 4,5%).
Η ΕΚΤ προσπαθεί να αποτρέψει τις επιχειρήσεις από την μετακύλιση του αυξημένου κόστος στους καταναλωτές, ενώ ταυτόχρονα παροτρύνει τους εργαζομένους να μην επιδιώξουν αυξήσεις τους μισθούς τους, καθώς κάτι τέτοιο θα επιφέρει αλυσιδωτές επιπτώσεις στην οικονομία.
Ο κίνδυνος είναι ότι το υψηλό κόστος δανεισμού θα επιβραδύνει τον ρυθμό της οικονομικής ανάπτυξης. Παράλληλα, κατασκευαστικές εταιρείες και εταιρείες παροχής υπηρεσιών στην Ευρώπη βλέπουν τα οικονομικά τους αποτελέσματα να βρίσκονται στο χαμηλότερο επίπεδο από την εποχή τον τρομοκρατικών επιθέσεων της 11ης Σεπτεβρίου. «Τα χέρια της ΕΚΤ είναι δεμένα από τον υψηλό πληθωρισμό και το ενδεχόμενο ενός δεύτερου γύρου αρνητικών επιπτώσεων», δήλωσε ο Αουρέλιο Μακάριο, οικονομικός αναλυτής Unicredit MIB στο Μιλάνο.
Να σημειωθεί ότι, η τιμή του αργού πετρελαίου υποχώρησε στα 126 δολάρια το βαρέλι μετά από την εκτόξευσή της στα 147,27 δολάρια το βαρέλι στις 11 Ιουλίου. Ωστόσο, οι τιμές παραμένουν αυξημένες κατά 60% σε σύγκριση με πέρυσι.
http://www.imerisia.gr/article.asp?catid=12336&subid=2&tag=9424&pubid=2757102
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