Αμερικάνικη ύφεση: ένας καλός οδηγός

The most important recession questions — how deep and how long — remain the most difficult to answer. Federal Reserve officials expect the economy to remain weak at least through next summer, and perhaps through the end of the year before recovering. But their GDP projections (submitted at their policy meeting this week) won’t be released until Nov. 19, and some officials tend to avoid projecting GDP declines (opting for a simple no-growth estimate).

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/10/30/waiting-for-the-recession-call/

και

Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers expects an annualized contraction of 2.8% and 1.4% in the fourth quarter and first quarter, respectively. MA says a recovery in the second half assumes there will be additional fiscal stimulus in 2009. However, they warn that if it does arrive, “it will not do so soon enough to improve materially the GDP outlook for the next two quarters.”
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So even though most economists are forecasting a recovery to begin in the second half of 2009, the risks continue to be to the downside.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/10/30/when-will-economy-recover/