Stocks@US Elections

In the last 20 presidential election years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was negative through November on a total of seven occasions. On three of those occasions, including the last instance in 2000, the incumbent party was booted from the White House. A broader index created by the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago, the CRSP NYSE Value-Weighted Index, shows the market down on only three of the last 19 presidential years, including 1932 and 1960.

In 1960, the Dow was down 14% through Nov. 1, the biggest loss in any presidential year since, apart from this year. In the election, first-time Democratic candidate John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon, then the incumbent Republican vice president.

The last time the Dow was showing a loss as big as its current decline of 20% on a presidential election year, was 1932. That year, Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt beat Republican President Herbert Hoover (the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally hit a low in the brutal summer of ‘32, three years after the great crash).

από τη γνωστή στήλη της wsj