Για τον Οκτώβρη όμως υπάρχουν δύο πιο ακραίες εκδοχές:
- crash, που να μοιάζει με το 1929
- το γύρισμα μιας bear market
Kαι στις δύο περιπτώσεις, ο μήνας μάλλον είναι ιδανικός για αγορές!
There’s only one October, but for the markets, it is often a doozy: October is both the “jinx” month because of the crashes in 1929 and 1987 and the “mini” crash of Friday the 13th, 1989. More recently, though, it’s garnered a reputation as a “bear killer.”
Headed into the month, the Dow industrials had already experienced a terrible September. Investors have good reason to fear the jinx this time around because stock-market plunges sometimes happen in waves. For instance, Black Monday, Oct. 19, 1987 was preceded by big dips on Oct. 14 (a then-record point drop for the Dow) and Oct. 16. The great crash of 1929 featured Black Thursday, Black Monday and Black Tuesday.
Economists warn that the wave of bank failures and freeze in lending around the world puts commercial activity at risk of slowing to a standstill worldwide. That’s a scenario that played out in the early 1930s, resulting in the Great Depression and several currency crises.
To some, the recent volatility demands comparison with that era.
“I have never seen such a drop in my trading experience,” said Lorenzo Di Mattia, manager of hedge fund Sibilla Global Fund. “Neither have most people…only ‘87, but ‘87 was different…the market (had) just topped and (had) gone up a lot before. This is probably more like the 1930s.”
Before investors despair, however, October is also the best-performing month in the last decade for the Dow and the Standard & Poor’s 500, and has gained a reputation as a “bear killer,” writes Jeffrey Hirsch in the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
“October is a great time to buy,” Mr. Hirsch said. This month “turned the tide in 11 post-World War II bear markets.”
Looking at previous market crises — excluding exogenous events such as Pearl Harbor, Watergate and 9/11 — Mr. Hirsch found a range of outcomes in stock levels a year later. Returns on the Dow ranged from a loss of 32% a year after the oil embargo in 1973 to a gain of 23% after the 1987 crash.
Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research, notes that the market has managed to hold a level of support at the 160-month moving average, which represents the average daily closing price traced back over the last roughly 15 years.
It served as support in the ugly years of 2002 and 2003, Mr. Detrick said, and could be in play in the coming weeks. “We were encouraged that [Monday] we closed above that level,” Mr. Detrick said. “Since the early 1980s, that trend line has served as support.”
Plus, the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, which measures the premiums paid on options to protect against swings in the stock market, rose 91% in September, to close above 40. On six of the last eight occasions the VIX rose more than 40%, the market was higher by at least 5% three months later.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/10/01/octoberfest-in-the-markets/
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