Σεπτέμβριος 2008

Ενδιαφέροντα στατιστικά από τη γνωστή στήλη

Posted by David Gaffen

Enjoy the post-Labor Day rally. It isn’t likely to last.

The Tuesday following the Labor Day holiday has been a strong one for markets in recent years. The Dow has closed higher in 12 of the last 14 years. But it unfortunately leads off the month of September, which, since 1970, ranks as the worst-performing month for major indexes, according to the Stock Traders Almanac.

The performance in 2007 didn’t alter that, even though the Dow gained 4% and the S&P 500 rose by 3.6%. The Dow has finished higher in 12 of the past 37 Septembers and on average loses 1.3%, while the S&P loses, on average, 0.9%.

“September comes with a lot of baggage — churning and positioning and window dressing and house-cleaning,” says Jeff Hirsch, editor at the Hirsch Organization, which publishes the almanac. “There are end-of-third-quarter portfolio adjustments, when hedge funds and mutual funds sell a lot of things that aren’t performing.”

In the last several years September’s outcome has vacillated wildly, from three consecutive years with Dow rallies, to massive losses, such as those sustained in 2001 and 2002 (declines of 11.1% and 12.4%, respectively). Charles Payne, founder of Wall Street Strategies, notes that since 2003, the first week of action in September has foreshadowed the performance for the rest of the month. “This week is going to be very telling, indeed,” he says.

The presidential election complicates matters in 2008. The September preceding an election is actually the best of the four-year cycle, according to Mr. Hirsch, but the markets do better when the incumbent party stays in power, but the Republican Party is in danger of losing control of the White House this time around.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/09/02/septembers-sad-song/