Leading indicators fall; recession seen through summer

The recession may continue through the summer, though its intensity could ease, the Conference Board said Monday.

The index of leading economic indicators fell 0.3% in March, following an upwardly revised dip of 0.2% in February. Building permits were the largest negative contributor in March, while the real money supply was the largest positive contributor.

"There have been some intermittent signs of improvement in the economy in April, but the leading economic index and most of its components are still pointing down," said Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board.

The index is designed to forecast economic activity six to nine months ahead. In recent months, weakness has been widespread among the indicators. In March, six of the 10 indicators were negative contributors, three were positive, and one was steady.

There have been scattered points of improved data recently. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the recession could be leveling out, pointing to home sales, home building and consumer spending.

"A leveling out of economic activity is the first step toward recovery," Bernanke said in prepared remarks for a speech in Atlanta. See full story.

However, elsewhere Monday the national activity index published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago indicated that the U.S. economy remained mired deep in recession in March. The three-month average for the index improved marginally to negative 3.27 from negative 3.57 in February and negative 3.69 in January, which was the lowest since 1975. Any reading under zero indicates below-average growth.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/leading-indicators-fall-recession-seen/story.aspx?guid={C3F4509A-6161-4DDD-AACF-4EF238601B05}