Goldman Sachs’ economists lay out several key economic signs they expect to confirm their forecast that the economy will begin to recover during the next six months.
Goldman expects annualized industrial production to rise 5%-6%, and for the ISM index to move above 50 within next couple months. In next six months, home sales, single-family starts and residential construction should all increase; retail sales should continue to rise at an average pace of 0.3% a month; and there should be a more definitive drop in jobless claims and a stabilization in payrolls.
The firm sees a 3% annualized GDP growth in the second half, then slowing to 2% in 1Q10
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2009/08/12/goldman-lays-out-economic-recovery-scenario/
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