Ως συνήθως οι ..αναλυτές ..πέφτουν από τα σύννεφα!!
The autumnal decline in stocks came as investors swallowed gallons of bad news, from financial-market freezes to takeovers of major companies by the federal government.
An environment such as this almost always has another surprise around the corner, and it may come in the form of earnings revisions, which many strategists believe are too high. What’s interesting is that the market may have already figured this out, even if analysts have not.
As of Friday, the consensus estimate for 2009 earnings growth was 9.4%, according to Thomson Financial, with per-share earnings of $82.60 for the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. That figure has been declining, as it stood at $89.21 on Nov. 7.
However, 2008 earnings are currently projected at $67.56 a share, according to S&P, which would make it the worst year for earnings since 2004. Strategists say equity investors have already factored in a terrible year for earnings in 2009, something much worse than the consensus.
...
Tobias Levkovich, chief investment strategist at Citigroup, is forecasting per-share earnings of $62 for 2009. With the S&P at 896.20, that translates to a forward price-to-earnings of 14.4, lower than the historical average. His model of investor expectations of long-term earnings growth suggests that investors are expecting a more pessimistic outcome than corporate managements, which are either viewing things optimistically, or punting this one down the road a ways.
ολόκληρο το κείμενο: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/12/08/price-to-whatever-ratio/
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