Insolvency Vs. Illiquidity

(30/11/09)
In my opinion, Dubai is the warning bell that the global economy has entered Phase B. The greater part of the liquidity crisis is over; but now starts the real pain of dealing with insolvency. Central banks and financial ministers did a creditable job of subduing illiquidity. They even fostered the view that the global Great Recession was over. That's a mistake.

Dealing with insolvency will require far greater political resolve and much different skills than merely lowering rates and opening credit facilities to all comers.

http://suddendebt.blogspot.com/2009/11/insolvency-vs-illiquidity.html

Από τον ίδιο:

the global economy has entered Phase B (9/11/09)
Bottom line: We are now entering Phase B of the recession (it is better described as a depression, with a small "d"). We are likely to see sustainable declines in personal consumption for several quarters, since unemployment is high and still rising, crimping earned income. I very much doubt that banks will go on a lending spree to households to support spending - in fact, I believe they can't, given the atrocious shape of their balance sheets.

After the current transition period in GDP figures, which is characterized by a stabilization in business spending and inventories, I am looking for a series of quarters of -2% to -3% GDP declines, almost all of it from consecutive declines in consumer spending, particularly in services.

και με πιο ..κρύο αίμα:

The Crisis, Part Two (Plus Addendum)

Να υποθέσω ότι η Φάση Νο.3 είναι το τέλος της κατάστασης;