“I personally put lots of emphasis on employment,” Robert Hall, who heads the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, said in an interview. “I would say ‘pretty clear’ is a good description” for whether the economic contraction has ended, he said.
“It’s great news that employment has finally stopped shrinking,” Hall, a Stanford University professor, said.
“That is looking better now,” he said. “I think the odds favor a continuing expansion in employment, but I don’t have great confidence.”
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