five phases to this current down-cycle

Interesting analysis via David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch:
"There have been five phases to this current down-cycle: the first four are still in full swing, but it is the fifth that will very likely emerge as the most difficult stage of this economic downturn and bear market:
??? The first wave was the end of the housing cycle when starts peaked and began to roll over in the first quarter of 2006.
??? The second wave was the end of the home price bubble when the Case-Shiller index began to deflate in the first quarter of 2007.
??? The third wave was the end of the credit cycle when the interbank market froze in August 2007.
??? The fourth wave was the employment cycle, which peaked when payrolls did in December 2007, prompting the Fed to reluctantly embark on an aggressive policy easing course.
??? The fifth wave will be the end of the consumer cycle and the beginning of what may well prove to be the most significant recession since the mid-1970s, and while delayed by the tax rebates, this phase seems to have commenced in June when U of M consumer sentiment collapsed to its lowest level in 28 years."
Rosenberg has been consistent in terms of warning about an economic slowdown over the past year, and dates the likely start of the recession to January 2008. Going forward, he is more concerned with Deflation than Inflation .
https://www.gpcresearch.ml.wallst.com/common/emaillink/pdf.asp?SSS_65C054B66D9CF76E5DB6048F077D6551&pdf=pdf/North_America_Morning_Market_M.pdf