Looking to 2009 (consensus?)

The sunny outlook is a bit surprising, given the past 12 months, and the uncertain path of the economy, reflected in the historic low yields in the U.S. Treasury market. But according to Birinyi, the consensus estimate of 14 strategists for next year’s performance by the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is for a 21% return — even though a grouping of 12 top strategists expected a 12% return in 2008.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/12/31/looking-to-2009-accentuating-the-positive/

Charles Rotblut, market strategist at Zacks Investment Research, notes that the consensus S&P earnings estimate for 2009 stands at $64.69, down 6% from 2008, but he adds that “given the trend in estimate revisions and the lack of visibility, I have little confidence that this number will be accurate.”
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The second half, however, is more problematic, and this is where opinions diverge. James Paulsen of Wells Capital Management, the most optimistic in MarketBeat’s poll, expects about a 45% gain in 2009, with the first 20 percentage points coming rather easily, and the rest more slowly.

However, one of the pessimists, author Michael Panzner, expects the S&P to rise by 25% to 30% in the first half, but sees everything falling apart in the second half due to increasing protectionism, declining profits, and a loss of confidence in U.S. assets by foreigners.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/12/30/looking-ahead-to-2009/