President Barack Obama was greeted with the worst one-day selloff in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the history of presidential elections. But this means little — and the reaction in the first 100 days of his administration is only slightly more important.
Markets have run the gamut in terms of performance in the first 100 days of a new president’s administration, with the best performance coming in the first few months of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first term, when the Dow bounced by about 75% after suffering through most of the previous four years.
The worst “first 100 days” also belongs to FDR, when the Dow dropped 28% at the beginning of his second term.
In more recent administrations, the results have been only somewhat predictive of the future performance of the index:
Ronald Reagan’s first 100 days in 1981 saw the Dow fall by 11%, but by the end of his eight-year presidency, the Dow had gained 135%.
Bill Clinton’s presidency began with a 20% bounce in the Dow, which ended his presidency having more than tripled.
George W. Bush, on the other hand, saw the Dow fall 7.6% in his first 100 days, and he became the first president since Jimmy Carter to see the Dow fall during his tenure.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2009/01/20/four-at-four-hail-to-the-selloff/
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