(Reuters) - Senior EU officials are speaking privately about a dangerous new phase in the two-year-old euro zone crisis. Greece - the spark for the conflagration - is close to intractable and Italy, the region's third largest economy and biggest bond market, is cause of grave concern.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte provided perhaps the clearest indication yet that Greece's 10-year euro membership might not be forever, outlining on Wednesday a plan under which a member state could leave the currency bloc if it consistently and repeatedly ignored budget deficit and other obligations.
"Countries which are not prepared to be placed under administratorship can choose to use the possibility to leave the euro zone," he and his finance and economics ministers wrote in a proposal sent to the Dutch parliament, although it did not mention Greece or any other member state by name.
In whispers, some officials are giving a stark assessment, even if they do not yet represent the mainstream of EU thinking, where many still talk about a solution being found.
"I think the euro zone is on the verge of collapse," said one senior official involved in analyzing solutions to the crisis.
"Italy is the only country that matters now. Forget about Greece. Even if you could find a way to get Greece out of the euro zone, it wouldn't resolve the Italian problem and it wouldn't resolve the debt crisis."
Athens Catch-22
"You can't leave the euro zone, but you don't have what it takes to stay in it either."
Private economic analysts have begun to conclude that it is only a matter of time before a way is found to let Greece go.
..
even if the rest of the euro zone were to decide Athens is no longer a viable member, they would be stuck with it for as long as Greece wants to stay in the club.
In that respect, those concerned about Greece's ability to meet its obligations and worried about its threat to euro-zone integrity may be better off focusing their attention on bigger issues threatening to fracture the bloc, such as Italy's debt problems and the ramifications of a potential default by Rome.
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φαντάζομαι ότι με το ποστ αυτό καθώς με μόνο με όσα έχουν αναρτηθεί τις τελευταίες 3-4 εβδομάδες, το Ελληνικό Ζήτημα έχει εξαντληθεί, εξού και η χθεσινή ανάρτηση/υποθετική ερώτηση:
πως θα γίνει η orderly έξοδος από το ευρώ;
1. θα μεσολαβήσουν εκλογές
2. θα έχομε δημοψήφισμα
3. μια νύχτα απλά θα γίνει στάση πληρωμών (Αργεντινή)
4. δε θα γίνει έξοδος, το κρατος θα πληρώνει τους εγχώριους προμηθευτές του με "Ι O U" [I owe unto
5. δε θα γίνει τίποτε από τα παραπάνω - αλά Καλιφόρνια 2009 και αλλού]
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte provided perhaps the clearest indication yet that Greece's 10-year euro membership might not be forever, outlining on Wednesday a plan under which a member state could leave the currency bloc if it consistently and repeatedly ignored budget deficit and other obligations.
"Countries which are not prepared to be placed under administratorship can choose to use the possibility to leave the euro zone," he and his finance and economics ministers wrote in a proposal sent to the Dutch parliament, although it did not mention Greece or any other member state by name.
In whispers, some officials are giving a stark assessment, even if they do not yet represent the mainstream of EU thinking, where many still talk about a solution being found.
"I think the euro zone is on the verge of collapse," said one senior official involved in analyzing solutions to the crisis.
"Italy is the only country that matters now. Forget about Greece. Even if you could find a way to get Greece out of the euro zone, it wouldn't resolve the Italian problem and it wouldn't resolve the debt crisis."
Athens Catch-22
"You can't leave the euro zone, but you don't have what it takes to stay in it either."
Private economic analysts have begun to conclude that it is only a matter of time before a way is found to let Greece go.
..
even if the rest of the euro zone were to decide Athens is no longer a viable member, they would be stuck with it for as long as Greece wants to stay in the club.
In that respect, those concerned about Greece's ability to meet its obligations and worried about its threat to euro-zone integrity may be better off focusing their attention on bigger issues threatening to fracture the bloc, such as Italy's debt problems and the ramifications of a potential default by Rome.
full
___________________________________
φαντάζομαι ότι με το ποστ αυτό καθώς με μόνο με όσα έχουν αναρτηθεί τις τελευταίες 3-4 εβδομάδες, το Ελληνικό Ζήτημα έχει εξαντληθεί, εξού και η χθεσινή ανάρτηση/υποθετική ερώτηση:
πως θα γίνει η orderly έξοδος από το ευρώ;
1. θα μεσολαβήσουν εκλογές
2. θα έχομε δημοψήφισμα
3. μια νύχτα απλά θα γίνει στάση πληρωμών (Αργεντινή)
4. δε θα γίνει έξοδος, το κρατος θα πληρώνει τους εγχώριους προμηθευτές του με "Ι O U" [I owe unto
5. δε θα γίνει τίποτε από τα παραπάνω - αλά Καλιφόρνια 2009 και αλλού]
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