RBS sees Fed hiking in September, not June

RBS Securities now expects the Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates in September, pushing back its forecast for a June increase in the central bank's target lending rate. The firm pointed to the Fed's monetary-policy setting committee's reiteration on Tuesday that rates would stay low for an extended period. "Given that 'extended period' is generally interpreted to be six months, the prospects for a June rate hike now look extremely dim," said Michelle Girard, an economist at RBS, in a note Friday. Still, once the Fed starts raising rates, it will be done aggressively -- in half-percentage point increases at the last three meetings of the year, according to RBS. That would take the fed funds rate to 1.75% from a range of zero to 0.25% currently. Rate hikes will continue in 2011, pushing borrowing costs to 5%, the firm said. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect, on average, that the first rate hike will come in the first quarter of 2011.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/rbs-sees-fed-hiking-in-september-not-june-2010-03-19

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