κακή πρόβλεψη us gdp

Blip

Calculated Risk beat me to this: the economists at Goldman Sachs are now predicting 5.8 percent growth in the fourth quarter. But they also say that the headline number will be highly misleading: two-thirds of the growth will be an inventory bounce, with final demand growing only 2 percent. In short, it will be a blip.

CR does miss one small trick, however: he asks when we last saw growth that high combined with rising unemployment, and says 1981. That’s true. However, the last time we saw an initial report of 5.8 percent growth combined with rising unemployment is much more recent: the first quarter of 2002. The quarter’s growth was later revised down, but at the time there was much unwarranted celebration (unemployment didn’t peak until summer 2003).

So here comes the blip. Curb your enthusiasm.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/16/blip/

Δείτε και τα links του ποστ. Πολύ κακή πρόγνωση... Κατά μία έννοια (πολύ προωθημένα όμως) είναι καλοδεχούμενη... Η παγκόσμια οικονομία περνάει πολύ γρήγορα από τα 70ς στα 80ς... Και αυτό δείχνει αντοχές...