Να... αποχωρήσει από το ευρώ συμβουλεύει την Ελλάδα ο Gary Cohn,
κορυφαίο στέλεχος της Goldman Sachs, εκτιμώντας ούτε λίγο ούτε πολύ πως
μόνο τότε η χώρα έχει μια ευκαιρία να βρεθεί σε καλύτερη θέση.
"Εάν οι Έλληνες έφευγαν από το ευρώ, επανέφεραν τη δραχμή και την
υποτιμούσαν, σε ορίζοντα 3-5 ετών η Ελλάδα θα είχε μια ακμάζουσα,
οικονομία που θα βασίζεται στον τουρισμό" δήλωσε χαρακτηριστικά.Μάλιστα ο ίδιος χαρακτήρισε... χρήσιμη μια νέα αναδιάρθρωση του ελληνικού χρέους.
Σύμφωνα με τον Cohn, το πιο πιθανό σενάριο είναι πως ορισμένες χώρες θα επιλέξουν να βγουν από την ευρωζώνη για να μπορέσουν να κυνηγήσουν την ανάπτυξη.
Σε ένα ομοσπονδιακό σύστημα, μπορεί να δημιουργηθεί μια ενοποιημένη Ευρώπη, όπου οι χώρες που ευημερούν χάρη στο κοινό νόμισμα, επιδοτούν τις χώρες που συρρικνώνονται εξαιτίας του, επεσήμανε ο Cohn.
Ο ίδιος θέτει μικρή πιθανότητα να συμβεί κάτι τέτοιο.
Ο Cohn σημειώνει πως η Νότια Ευρώπη δεν έχει τη δυνατότητα να αναπτυχθεί οικονομικά με το περιβάλλον σταθερών συναλλαγματικών ισοτιμιών στο οποίο είναι σήμερα.
Η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα με την υπόσχεση του προγράμματος απεριόριστης στήριξης για το χρέος, αν οι χώρες υπογράψουν τη σύμβαση για τις οικονομικές μεταρρυθμίσεις, αντιμετωπίζει την «προϋπάρχουσα κατάσταση», αλλά δεν αντιμετωπίζει την έλλειψη ανάπτυξης, σημείωσε ο Cohn.
Η Ευρώπη χρειάζεται ακόμα μια «στιγμή» παρόμοια με την Lehman Brothers του 2008, όπως προσθέτει. Οι 17 χώρες που μοιράζονται το ευρώ πρέπει να βρουν τρόπους για να στηρίξουν την οικονομική ανάπτυξη στα ασθενέστερα μέλη, ενώ τα προγράμματα λιτότητας δεν υποστηρίζουν την ανάπτυξη.
http://www.bankingnews.gr/texnikianalisiektheseis/item/61769-goldman-sachs-%CE%B7-%CE%B5%CE%BB%CE%BB%CE%AC%CE%B4%CE%B1-%CF%80%CF%81%CE%AD%CF%80%CE%B5%CE%B9-%CE%BD%CE%B1-%CE%B1%CF%80%CE%BF%CF%87%CF%89%CF%81%CE%AE%CF%83%CE%B5%CE%B9-%CE%B1%CF%80%CF%8C-%CF%84%CE%BF-%CE%B5%CF%85%CF%81%CF%8E-%CE%B5%CE%AC%CE%BD-%CE%B7-%CF%87%CF%8E%CF%81%CE%B1-%CE%B5%CF%80%CE%B9%CF%83%CF%84%CF%81%CE%AD%CF%88%CE%B5%CE%B9-%CF%83%CF%84%CE%B7-%CE%B4%CF%81%CE%B1%CF%87%CE%BC%CE%AE-%CF%83%CE%B5-%CE%BF%CF%81%CE%AF%CE%B6%CE%BF%CE%BD%CF%84%CE%B1-3-5-%CE%B5%CF%84%CF%8E%CE%BD-%CE%B8%CE%B1-%CE%AD%CF%87%CE%B5%CE%B9-%CE%BC%CE%B9%CE%B1-%CE%B1%CE%BA%CE%BC%CE%AC%CE%B6%CE%BF%CF%85%CF%83%CE%B1-%CE%BF%CE%B9%CE%BA%CE%BF%CE%BD%CE%BF%CE%BC%CE%AF%CE%B1-%CF%87%CF%81%CE%AE%CF%83%CE%B9%CE%BC%CE%B7-%CE%BC%CE%B9%CE%B1-%CE%BD%CE%AD%CE%B1-%CE%B1%CE%BD%CE%B1%CE%B4%CE%B9%CE%AC%CF%81%CE%B8%CF%81%CF%89%CF%83%CE%B7-%CF%84%CE%BF%CF%85-%CE%B5%CE%BB%CE%BB%CE%B7%CE%BD%CE%B9%CE%BA%CE%BF%CF%8D-%CF%87%CF%81%CE%AD%CE%BF%CF%85%CF%82
___________________________________________________
στα αγγλικά
Goldman sees ‘small’ chance euro area will stick together
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) President and Chief Operating Officer Gary D. Cohn sees a “small” probability that the euro area will stick together, saying it’s more likely that some countries will exit to pursue growth, Bloomberg reported.
“In federalism, you create a unified Europe, where the countries that are thriving because of the currency subsidize the countries that are contracting because of the currency,” Cohn said in an interview in Tokyo today. “I would put a relatively small probability of that happening.”
The European Central Bank program pledging unlimited support to debt-burdened nations if they sign up for economic reforms deals with the “pre-existing condition” but hasn’t addressed the lack of growth, Cohn said. ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to “do whatever it takes” to defend the euro as officials seek to stem the debt crisis.
Europe still needs a “moment” similar to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s 2008 bankruptcy, Cohn said, reiterating comments made in June. The 17 countries that share the euro must find ways to support economic growth in the weaker members, he had said at that time, adding that austerity programs don’t support expansion.
“Southern Europe has no ability to grow the economy with the fixed exchange-rate environment they’re in,” he said today.
Policy makers from around the world who are in Tokyo for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund this week bemoaned the economic threat of strong exchange rates.
Such worries across both industrial and developing nations are being heightened by an IMF warning that global growth and trade are slowing, leaving countries at risk of losing an export edge if their exchange rates climb. The Federal Reserve drew fire from emerging markets for propelling their currencies higher.
Greece may be better off outside the euro, Cohn said.
“It would be hard for me to not think that if the Greeks dropped out of the euro, brought back the drachma, devalued it 10 to 1, that within three to five years they wouldn’t have a thriving, booming economy based on tourism,” Cohn said. In the meantime, further debt relief may be “helpful,” he said.
Greek government bond prices have doubled during the past three months as investors, including the $9 billion hedge fund Third Point LLC, bet the likelihood of the nation leaving the euro-region has diminished.
While flagging concern that not enough is being done to bolster global economic growth, Cohn also said that the U.S. Federal Reserve may struggle to end its quantitative easing program.
“I understand what they’re trying to do and I will tell you this, this is going to be difficult to stop or to exit,” Cohn told Bloomberg Television today in Tokyo. “At the end of this -- there will be an end to quantitative easing -- we will have to go through the pains of stopping quantitative easing.”
The Fed last month announced its third round of large-scale asset purchases since 2008, with no limit this time on the ultimate amount it would buy or the duration of the program. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke says stimulus will be expanded until there’s a “sustained improvement” in the labor market.
Goldman Sachs sees opportunity in Europe to advise clients on purchases of banking assets, Cohn said. The New York-based lender doesn’t plan to be a buyer.
“It’s more of an opportunity for our clients,” he said.
____________________________
Cohn on whether he'll read Greg Smith's book:
On Federal Reserve stimulus:"Is it coming out next week? I probably will read it."
On the importance of November's election:"I worry about everything. My job is to worry. It's something that you have to worry about. The Fed has pretty good information what's going on in the economy. They've got pretty information what's going on with employment. We know that the Fed wants to create job growth. We know the Fed wants to create asset appreciation. I understand what they are trying to do, whether I agree with it or disagree with it. I understand what they are trying to do and I will tell you this is going to be difficult to stop or to exit. There will be an end of quantitative easing. We will have to go through the pains of stopping quantitative easing."
"I don't know if I disagree or agree. Right now based upon our economic cycle I understand what the fed is doing I understand what the ECB is doing I understand what the bank of England is doing and I understand what the bank of Japan is doing. Unfortunately they are all kind of doing the same thing so it has less impact than it might if the others were on the sideline. But I understand in this globalized economy where we've got free movement of currency, where we've got free movement of risk assets and everything is relatively fungible that the Fed is trying to do what they think is in the best interest of the U.S. economy."
On the global economy:"We will see what happens about the election. I don't know more than anybody else does…It looks like to me the Republicans will maintain the House, it looks like to me the Democrats will retain the Senate. And I don't know what's going on in the presidential race and I think all of us are operating under those assumptions, but I can guarantee you this: we've got other plans with other assumptions if the world were to change."
On whether Goldman Sachs is at a funding disadvantage compared to the bigger banks:"The global economy is in a tough place, and the reason it's in a tough place is that we're in a unique period of history where all of the major global players in the economy are going through a relatively tough period of time. If you look at what's going on in the euro zone and what's going on in the United States, you look at what's going on here in Japan, and you even look at what's going on in China today, you've got a lot of anxiety in the system to where were going and how we're going to get the global economy growing. The world that we live in today also has a linkage between all of these major economies around the world and what we're really looking for is one of these countries, or some of these countries to show some leadership in growing their economy where other economies can grow with them at the same time. At this point we're really lacking some leadership."
On whether he still believes that Europe needs a Lehman-type moment:"There's this common view that we're at a funding disadvantage because of the deposits. We have a fairly large deposit network right now, close to $60 billion of deposits out there. The reality is that you can only use deposits for a very specific part of your business. There's a couple rules called 23A and 23B that do not allow you to take retail deposits and move them into your investment banking business. So our investment banking business is on equal footing with everyone else's investment banking business when it comes to financing that business. For the businesses where you can use deposit funding, they clearly have an advantage, but their books are so much bigger to our books relative to their advantage. We don't need more deposit funds to fund our business, in fact, of the $60B in deposits we have today we don't even have use for that entire $60B in deposits."
On Draghi:"I still really do believe it needs a moment. Remember this is politics, this is economics, this is balance of payments, there are a lot of factors at play here. I'm not sure if Spain's going to be one of those moments, I'm not sure that Greece still might not be one of those moments. I'm not sure what the moment will be, but I do believe there's going to be a moment where everyone takes a deep breath and says we've got to fix this situation."
"I think Mario Draghi has done a spectacular job he really has. Since Mario Draghi took office as the head of the ECB, he came in and showed really leadership, lowered interest rates has done out and done all of the other things that you would want a dynamic central bank leader to do. He has removed a lot of the risk off the table, but he hasn't dealt with and he can't deal with the real long term problem of Europe which is economic growth."
ZH
____________________________________________________
ΓΙ'ΑΥΤΟ ΟΙ ΑΜΕΡΙΚΑΝΟΙ ΕΙΝΑΙ ΟΙ ΚΑΛΥΤΕΡΟΙ:
"we've got other plans with other assumptions if the world were to change"
για το βίντεο: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-11/goldman-s-cohn-sees-small-chance-euro-area-will-stick-together.html
No comments:
Post a Comment