Septembers show gains only 42% of the time since 1900, the worst for any month. June is next at 49%. The rest are 50% or better.
In the 10 years through 2008, the Dow fell in seven Septembers, averaging a 3.4% September pullback. Other months did better. The average August gain was 0.7%. October’s was 1.4%.
In August 2008, amid hopes for financial recovery, the Dow rose 1.5%. Then it fell 6% in September as Lehman Brothers collapsed.
When the Dow has been up over all three time periods mentioned above, it has averaged worse than normal September returns. Of the 17 times when the Dow has been up year to date through August, up from June to August, and up in August, the index has averaged a decline of 1.73% in September with positive returns just 3 out of 17 months. The only positive Septembers under this scenario were in 1963, 1983, and 2006.
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