“We are going to be hiring this year,” said Joe Brusuelas, of Stanford-based economic research firm Brusuelas Analytics. He pegs the likely gain in payrolls at around 225,000 for March, up from a loss of 36,000 in February.
Here’s the evidence:
In the first place, the government has started hiring large numbers of temporary workers for the census. That number should peak at around 635,000 in May, according to the Commerce Department. The jobs will be temporary, but they are still jobs and that will likely mean increased spending in the economy and hence likely more hiring.
Even without the census-related boost, Brusuelas said the private sector should add about 50,000 permanent jobs a month if the economy stays on its current trend. That trend-growth rate should edge higher towards the end of the year, with even more jobs being added each month, he said.
...
On the cautious side, Charlotte-based Wells Fargo economist Adam York said the U.S. will need to see first-time unemployment insurance claims dip into the range of around 380,000 to 420,000 before the overall unemployment rate can be expected to drop significantly. Initial jobless claims today fell 14,000 but at 442,000 still are at an elevated level.
Even so, don’t be surprised to see some shockingly large jumps in payrolls at the end of next week and beyond. The real question is: How long will the hiring boom last?
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/03/25/dont-be-shocked-by-jobs-boom-next-week/
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