Naxitis: Could Germany choose to pull out of the euro?

Some voices in Germany suggest that Germany should leave the euro. Could
this opinion, rationally and not emotionally, be adopted by a majority of the
-Pulling out of the euro would at best have one advantage for Germany:
it would avoid a complete mutualisation of the euro zone’s public debt
and a move towards federalism that would offset Germany's external
surplus with the euro zone;
-The cost of leaving the euro would be twofold: first, a currency loss on
Germany's gross (and not net) assets against the other euro-zone
countries; second, a loss of competitiveness due to the appreciation of
the "mark" against the other euro-zone currencies.
A reasonable estimate of these effects shows (see the details of the
calculation in the conclusion) that Germany would clearly lose out byleaving the euro. 
Conclusion: Can the "anti-euro" faction grow in Germany if it uses rational arguments?
For the "anti-euro" faction to grow significantly in Germany by using rational
arguments,the gain for Germany in leaving the euro must outweigh the loss.
We estimate the gain (no mutualisation of public debt, no federalism)
for Germany to 3.9 percentage points of GDP per year at the most. We estimate
the (one-off) loss triggered by the withdrawal from the euro to 21 percentage
points of GDPdue to the capital loss on Germany's gross external assets and
to 3.9 percentage points of GDP per year due to the loss of competitiveness
All n all, it seems clear that Germany would lose out by leaving the euro.


No comments: